WS #10005

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the US-Iran deal narrative, with multiple sources corroborating that the deal is not fully priced in by markets (Bloomberg MLIV), while Iran warns that Israeli attacks on Lebanon threaten the agreement (Al Jazeera, multiple BSky posts). This creates a counter-signal to the prevailing oil bearishness: if the deal unravels due to Lebanon tensions, the Strait of Hormuz reopening thesis is at risk, potentially reversing the oil slide. Polymarket trades show active betting on Strait of Hormuz normalization and oil price floors, confirming market attention. Separately, the Swedish Riksbank surprised with a hawkish tilt, stating the probability of a rate hike later this year has increased, which is a significant shift from prior dovish expectations and could impact SEK and European rate expectations. The G7 summit statement reaffirmed support for Ukraine and linked the Strait of Hormuz reopening to the Iran deal, adding geopolitical weight. On the tech side, OpenAI's $3.7B quarterly burn rate (The Information) and SpaceX's $60B Cursor acquisition (Benzinga) highlight the AI capex frenzy, while China's securities regulator warned against AI stock speculation (CNBC), which could dampen the AI rally in Chinese equities. The US reportedly held off blacklisting DeepSeek and over 100 Chinese firms (Reuters via Alpaca), a potential de-escalation in US-China tech tensions. Intel's 18A process node entered risk production (Seeking Alpha), a positive for Intel's foundry ambitions. The UK political scene saw Wes Streeting threaten a Labour leadership challenge as early as next week (Guardian, BBC), adding domestic political uncertainty. The Iran deal narrative is ESCALATING with risks of derailment, while the Swedish central bank surprise is a new hawkish signal.