WS #10011

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the US-Iran deal narrative, now with multiple new data points from the G7 summit. Trump confirmed a press conference at 10:00 ET to discuss the MOU, but also stated the MOU is not final and that he could return to bombing if unsatisfied. He denied the $300 billion fund report. Separately, Germany's Merz announced plans to bring a Bundeswehr mandate for the Strait of Hormuz to parliament before summer recess, signaling European military commitment to secure the waterway. Oil prices have already fallen below $80 (Brent ~$78.90, WTI ~$76) as traders price in Iranian crude returning. The narrative is ESCALATING: the deal is progressing but with significant uncertainty about final terms. Separately, CarMax (KMX) reported strong Q1 earnings (EPS $1.31 vs $0.94 est, revenue $8.01B vs $7.41B est), sending shares up 3.6% in early trading, a positive signal for consumer discretionary. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares climbed 6% on successful BlueBird satellite launch. The UK's CMA set new conduct requirements for Google search services, a regulatory headwind for GOOGL. On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit Russian oil infrastructure (Moscow refinery), maintaining supply disruption risk that partially counters the bearish oil thesis. The G7 also aims to ensure China supplies no more than 60% of rare earths, a potential headwind for Chinese rare earth stocks and a tailwind for non-Chinese producers. Overall, the macro picture is dominated by the US-Iran deal and its oil price implications, with CarMax providing a positive consumer discretionary signal and UK tech regulation providing a headwind for GOOGL.