WS #10014

The dominant signal in this window is the strong US economic data, with May retail sales surging +0.9% (consensus +0.5%) and core retail sales ex-autos +0.8% (consensus +0.5%), indicating resilient consumer spending. This beats expectations and reduces the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate cut, which is bearish for growth/momentum stocks but bullish for consumer cyclicals. The data is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Alpaca, Jetstream). Separately, the US-Iran deal narrative continues to escalate: Iranian oil tankers have moved past the US blockade, and a leaked draft suggests a 14-point agreement involving sanctions relief and a $300B fund, though Trump threatened military action if terms are not met. The IEA warned of a massive oil glut by 2027 as Gulf supply returns, countering the oil supply crisis thesis. In corporate news, Bernstein boosted AMD and ARM price targets significantly, and Citi lifted price targets on semiconductor equipment stocks (AMAT, LRCX, KLAC) amid booming WFE demand. Jabil beat Q3 estimates and raised FY26 guidance. Smartbird (formerly Allbirds) completed its transformation into an AI company with a new CEO and expanded financing. The FOMC decision later today is the key macro event, with markets pricing a hold but watching for hawkish signals from Chair Warsh.