WS #10021

The dominant narrative in this window is the US-Iran deal, with Trump calling the MOU 'a very strong one' and stating 'they want to make a deal,' while warning that if they don't, the process will start again. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Alpaca, Bluesky, Polymarket). India PM Modi confirmed 'new speed and energy' in US relations and stressed the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Trump also stated he is 'very close' on an India trade deal and that the Strait will 'immediately be opened.' However, a counter-signal emerged: the White House allowed the Russian oil sanctions waiver to expire for the third time, which could tighten supply despite falling oil prices. On the corporate front, a significant development is Microsoft seeking to rent $3B in computing power from Oracle due to surging AI demand, signaling continued AI infrastructure buildout. Jabil posted upbeat Q3 results, surging 9.8%. Broadcom is gaining 3% as investors rotate back into semiconductor leaders. The VIX is dropping but a new weekly signal warns volatility may return. The overall narrative is de-escalation of the Iran conflict, but with important nuances: the Russian sanctions waiver expiry and continued Israeli strikes introduce counter-signals. The narrative arc is STABLE with respect to the Iran deal, but the Russian sanctions waiver expiry is a new bearish counter-signal for energy markets.