WS #10039

The US-Iran deal narrative continues to dominate, with multiple sources (Axios, ABC Australia, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, and various social media accounts) corroborating that the full 14-point Memorandum of Understanding has been released and is expected to be signed 'shortly, tomorrow, maybe the next day.' Key terms include Iran downblending enriched uranium, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and a $300 billion investment fund. However, counter-signals are emerging: Trump warned of resumed bombing if terms are not met, Israel conducted airstrikes in Lebanon, and Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, injuring up to 10 soldiers. The narrative is ESCALATING toward a final deal but with continued military tension. Separately, a MAG7 carve-out signal emerged: META's CTO admitted the AI reorganization was 'atrocious' and damaged employee trust, while the head of product for AI transformation is leaving. This contradicts the prevailing AI/tech bullish narrative and could weigh on META. Additionally, Tropical Storm Arthur has formed near the Gulf coast, threatening flash flooding in Texas and Louisiana, which could impact energy infrastructure. The Federal Reserve holds its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with Iran war stoking US inflation risks. A first-ever default in an $80 billion corner of the muni market was reported by Bloomberg, signaling stress in municipal bonds. Activist investor TCIM is targeting Devon Energy, and Nippon Steel sees US Steel profits above $624 million in 2026.