WS #10052

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating tension around the US-Iran deal, with Iran's top negotiator Qalibaf stating the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions and Iran will charge for services there. This directly contradicts the prior expectation of a smooth reopening and counters the bullish oil-supply thesis from the US-Iran MOU. Separately, the Fed's hawkish shift under Warsh continues to reverberate, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst 'Fed day' for a new chair since 1994, the dollar rallying, and gold tumbling 3.4%. The Fed narrative is stable but still the primary market mover. Rumble closed its acquisition of Northern Data, renaming the AI infrastructure business 'Quake AI' and raising its revenue outlook by ~30%, a positive catalyst for RUM. Smith & Wesson Brands reported a strong Q4 beat (EPS $0.36 vs $0.23 est, revenue $178.4M vs $155.3M), positive for SWBI. Robinhood is cutting 10% of staff (~290 jobs) despite record trading volumes, a mixed signal. SpaceX appointed Sequoia's Roelof Botha to its board, and SPCX saw heavy options activity. The Iran Strait of Hormuz development is the key new signal, escalating the geopolitical risk premium and potentially reversing the prior oil bearishness.