WS #10065

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation and execution of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Multiple sources (Reuters, Sky News, LBC, Substack, and various social media accounts) corroborate that the MOU was signed digitally on Sunday by JD Vance and Iran Speaker Qalibaf, witnessed by Trump, and physically signed on Wednesday by Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian in France. The deal is now in effect, with a 60-day period starting today. Iran has confirmed the deal and stated it will charge fees for services in the Strait of Hormuz. This development is a counter-signal to the prevailing war thesis, as it de-escalates the conflict and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, which had been a key choke point. Crude oil edged lower on the news, as per Bloomberg. Separately, Apple CEO Tim Cook stated the company will raise prices due to a '100-year flood' in memory chip costs, a high-significance MAG7 signal that contradicts any benign inflation narrative. The Fed's hawkish dot plot from earlier in the day continues to weigh on markets, with stock futures slightly higher but bond yields elevated. The situation is ESCALATING in terms of deal implementation, with the MOU now in effect and Iran already signaling new fees.