WS #10069

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed signing of a US-Iran interim peace deal (MOU), digitally signed by both presidents, with multiple corroborating sources (NBC, Al Jazeera, BBC, Bloomberg, Fox). The deal includes lifting of Iranian oil sanctions, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a reported $300 billion fund for Iran. This is a major geopolitical de-escalation that directly counters the prevailing war-risk narrative. Oil prices are already falling (US crude -1%, WTI ~$75.81), and equity futures are rising (S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.8%). However, the Fed's hawkish hold (rates at 3.50-3.75%, median 2026 rate up to ~3.8% implying a possible hike) creates a countervailing headwind for growth stocks. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on the peace deal front, with high cross-source corroboration. Additionally, a separate signal: Trump's threat to prefer no USMCA trade deal with Canada and Mexico adds trade uncertainty. Also notable: Biogen's $1B acquisition of RayThera (immunology pipeline) is a sector-specific M&A signal. The Fed's hawkish stance and the peace deal are the two key forces shaping markets.