WS #10074

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation and escalation of the US-Iran peace deal, now signed and in effect. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, BBC, Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, and social media) corroborate that the Memorandum of Understanding has been signed electronically by both sides, with Trump personally confirming at Versailles. The deal includes a 60-day halt to bombing, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran agreeing to downblend enriched uranium. The IEA warns of a massive oil surplus in 2027 as Middle East supply returns. Oil prices have already fallen below $80 (Brent) and $76 (WTI). This is a high-significance development that is ESCALATING in market impact. Separately, the Fed held rates steady with a hawkish tone from new Chair Kevin Warsh, signaling a potential hike later this year, which has strengthened the dollar and pressured gold. S&P 500 futures extended gains to 0.8% and Nasdaq futures climbed 1.4%, likely driven by the Iran deal optimism. Apple insider selling (SVP and Principal Accounting Officer) is noted but routine. META saw multiple board members report special transactions, but no material new information. Steel Dynamics issued downside Q2 guidance, missing estimates. The US-Iran deal is the primary market mover, with energy stocks and airlines directly affected.