WS #10082

The dominant signal in this window is the continued market impact of the US-Iran peace deal, with oil prices falling and stocks rallying. Al Jazeera reports oil prices fell and stocks rallied as US and Iran signed a framework to end war. This corroborates the prior narrative and is STABLE. However, a new ESCALATING development is the second Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow's oil refinery in two days, confirmed by multiple sources (Riskline, Bluesky posts with video). This could re-escalate Russia-Ukraine tensions and support oil prices, partially offsetting the peace deal's bearish oil effect. Separately, Google Gemini co-lead Noam Shazeer left for OpenAI, a high-significance AI talent move that is bearish for GOOGL and bullish for OpenAI's IPO prospects. Goldman Sachs said Hormuz oil flows may recover to only 70% after war, a medium-significance counter to the full-recovery thesis. CME CEO plans to sue CFTC over Kalshi's perpetual futures approval, adding regulatory uncertainty for crypto markets. JPMorgan cut off Anthropic access for Hong Kong staff, a bearish signal for Anthropic and AI sector. The narrative arc on the US-Iran deal is STABLE, the Moscow drone attack is ESCALATING, and the AI talent war is a new ESCALATING theme.