WS #10092

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict, with Ukraine confirming a second drone strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery in a week, causing fires and halting operations. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bluesky posts, Zelenskyy statement, video evidence) and represents a significant escalation in attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The strike has disrupted Moscow airport operations and is part of a broader campaign hitting oil depots and a railway bridge in Crimea. This development is bullish for oil prices (XOM, CVX, XLE) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer discretionary stocks, though the magnitude of the price impact is partially offset by the counter-signal of the US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Saudi tankers already crossing. Separately, Intel (INTC) shares are surging ~9% premarket after Trump announced Apple (AAPL) will partner with Intel for US chip manufacturing, a major catalyst for Intel and a modest positive for Apple's supply chain diversification. Taiwan's central bank left rates unchanged at 2.0%, with the chief leaning hawkish but not acting. The Philippine central bank hiked rates by 25bps to combat inflation. JPMorgan warned of market 'tantrums' from chip stock volatility. The narrative arc is: Ukraine-Russia conflict ESCALATING (refinery strike), US-Iran de-escalation STABLE (Hormuz reopening proceeding), Intel-Apple catalyst NEW.