WS #10106

Markets are recovering from the Fed-driven selloff, with the S&P 500 +0.8% and Nasdaq +1%, supported by US-Iran deal optimism and a Leading Economic Indicators print in line with estimates. The dominant geopolitical narrative remains Ukraine's escalating drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, with a second strike on Moscow's Kapotnya refinery in a week causing significant damage and 'oil rain'. This is pressuring Russian fuel supplies and military logistics, per Zelensky. However, a potential counter-signal is emerging: Saudi oil tankers are moving toward the Gulf of Oman, suggesting producers are preparing to resume flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which could ease oil supply fears. On the corporate front, Accenture (ACN) is crashing to a 52-week low on weak guidance, while Nvidia (NVDA) saw a large dark pool trade ($290M) and bullish option activity, and Microsoft (MSFT) is boosting AI ties with China. The Supreme Court issued multiple rulings, including a unanimous decision limiting the federal gun ban for marijuana users, but these are not directly market-moving. The Fed proposed requiring stablecoin issuers to have customer identification programs. Overall, the macro narrative is STABLE with a slight bullish tilt from the US-Iran deal and LEI data, but the Ukraine-Russia energy war remains an escalating risk.