WS #10118

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran ceasefire deal, which is STABLE and continuing to drive oil prices lower and risk-on sentiment. The 14-point MOU has been signed, with Strait of Hormuz traffic resuming and oil prices falling further (WTI -2.5%, Brent -2.1%). Jet fuel prices are tumbling, benefiting airlines. However, a new development has emerged: Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on Moscow, hitting the Kapotnya refinery (which supplies 40% of Moscow's fuel) and causing Russian oil stocks to crash. This escalation could reintroduce geopolitical risk premium into oil markets, partially offsetting the Iran deal's bearish impact. Additionally, Trump denied a $300 billion payment to Iran, and Israel is reportedly threatening to release Epstein files to kill the deal, adding political risk. Pfizer's CFO stepping down is a company-specific negative. Apple's foldable phone news and SanDisk's surge on memory shortage are tech positives.