WS #10137

The dominant theme in this window is the continued de-escalation of the US-Iran geopolitical risk premium, with the peace deal now signed by Trump and approved by Iran's Supreme Leader. This is driving oil lower and equities higher, with the S&P and Nasdaq closing sharply higher and semiconductors rallying. However, a countervailing hawkish Fed narrative is emerging under new Chair Kevin Warsh, pressuring credit spreads and weighing on risk assets like Bitcoin, which has shed post-Iran deal gains to drop to $63,000. The Ukraine conflict remains escalated, with a massive 194-drone attack on Moscow hitting a refinery for the second time in three days, and Australia announcing another $100M in aid. On the corporate front, Marvell surged 7% on Amazon's Trainium chip external sales plan, and SpaceX received a Baa1 rating from Moody's ahead of its IPO. Money market fund assets hit a record $7.92 trillion, signaling persistent cash hoarding. The Fed hawkishness is a new development that partially offsets the bullish equity impulse from the Iran deal, creating a mixed macro backdrop.