WS #10177

The dominant signal in this window is the further escalation of Israel-Hezbollah hostilities, with Iran suspending negotiations with the US and JD Vance cancelling his Switzerland trip, directly threatening the US-Iran peace deal. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, NYT, BBC) corroborate Israeli strikes on 80+ targets in Lebanon and Ukraine's second drone strike on Moscow Oil Refinery in a week, keeping geopolitical risk elevated. The Russian Central Bank cut its key rate to 14.25%, a dovish move that may pressure the ruble. Separately, Reliance Jio's IPO filing is confirmed with details (up to 270M shares, major bookrunners), a positive for Indian tech and indirectly for NVIDIA given Jio's AI infrastructure plans. The UK's top AI regulator resigned, creating regulatory uncertainty. Counter-signals: The Russian rate cut and ongoing Strait of Hormuz oil flows (12.5M bpd) partially offset the bearish energy thesis from geopolitical tensions. Narrative arc on geopolitical risk is ESCALATING; Jio IPO is new; UK AI regulator resignation is new.