WS #10179

The dominant signal in this window is the further escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with Ukraine launching its largest-ever drone attack on Moscow, striking a major oil refinery and causing a large fire. This follows a previous attack on the same refinery earlier in the week. President Zelenskyy warned 'if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn,' signaling an intensification of the conflict. Separately, the Strait of Hormuz reopening is progressing slowly, with industry experts warning it may take weeks to clear the shipping backlog, and insurers remain wary. Oil prices are hovering just above pre-war levels. In a major development, President Trump announced on Truth Social that Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build chips in the U.S., sending Intel shares up 10%. This counters the prevailing narrative of Intel's decline and could reshape the semiconductor landscape. The UK political scene is under pressure after Andy Burnham's reported win in the Makerfield by-election, intensifying pressure on PM Starmer. Crypto markets remain weak, with bitcoin below $63,000 and Strategy's STRC preferred stock experiencing a sharp selloff before partially recovering. The bond market is flashing a hawkish signal with the yield curve flattening, complicating prospects for a bitcoin bull run. Narrative arc: Ukraine-Russia conflict is ESCALATING; Strait of Hormuz reopening is STABLE but slow; Intel-Apple deal is a new positive signal; UK political risk is ESCALATING; crypto selloff is STABLE.