WS #10183

The dominant signal in this window is the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement, corroborated by multiple sources including Reuters, Sky News, and social media posts citing a senior US official. The ceasefire is set to begin at 4 PM local time Friday. This development counters the previous escalation narrative and is likely to reduce geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets. However, conflicting reports emerge: an Israeli official denies renewal of the ceasefire, while Hezbollah sources confirm implementation. This creates uncertainty about the durability of the truce. Separately, Iran has reportedly reclosed the Strait of Hormuz as the US-Iran peace deal collapses, with Trump's deal described as lasting 'less time than a Costco rotisserie chicken.' This keeps oil supply risk alive. Ukraine struck a Moscow oil depot with nearly 200 drones, the largest attack on the Russian capital, hitting the city's main oil refinery. This escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could further pressure energy markets. The IEA warns the oil market could swing from crisis to massive surplus by 2027, but this is a longer-term view. Alibaba's Joe Tsai made a strong AI push, calling AI a $50 trillion TAM and committing to full-stack investment. This is positive for BABA and the AI sector. The FT reports central banks are not ready to 'call the all-clear' despite the Iran deal, indicating persistent inflation concerns. Bill Pulte assumes role of US acting director of national intelligence, a political development with potential implications for intelligence policy but limited direct market impact. The dominant narrative is the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which is DE-ESCALATING the immediate conflict, but the Iran deal collapse and Ukraine drone strikes keep geopolitical tensions elevated.