WS #10185

The dominant signal in this window is the collapse of the US-Iran peace deal and the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has already caused oil futures to spike 5.6% before paring gains. The IRGC explicitly stated the strait will remain closed until Israel withdraws from Lebanon and US forces leave the region, threatening to target any ship entering. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bluesky posts, Polymarket contracts on strait traffic, and a post noting urea fertilizer prices spiked $80/ton). The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire remains fragile: a US official announced a renewal, but an Israeli official said forces will stay in southern Lebanon and operations may continue, while airstrikes were reported minutes after the ceasefire announcement. Separately, Ukraine's 555-drone barrage on Moscow's Kapotnya oil refinery has caused gasoline shortages in Moscow, per Kommersant. The Kremlin praised air defenses but the damage is significant. Russia also sold a stake in a seized gold miner for $1.3B (Bloomberg). UK political turmoil is escalating: cabinet ministers are reportedly telling PM Starmer his time is up, per The Times. This is a high-signal development for UK-focused equities and GBP. The ICC prosecutor Karim Khan was suspended by the UK Bar Standards Board over misconduct claims, which could affect high-profile war crimes cases. Alamos Gold trimmed guidance after seismic events. Spotify is down. BCB Bancorp suspended its dividend. MDA Space is acquiring Blue Canyon Technologies for $620M. Ryanair extended CEO O'Leary's contract to 2032. The overall narrative is ESCALATING on geopolitical risk (Iran strait closure, Ukraine drone strikes, fragile Lebanon ceasefire) and UK political crisis.