WS #10192

The dominant narrative is the rapid unraveling of the US-Iran MOU, with multiple sources reporting that Iran has postponed the scheduled Friday meeting in Switzerland and that the deal is effectively collapsing. This is corroborated by Al Jazeera, multiple Bluesky posts citing Iran's foreign ministry, and Polymarket contracts showing increased uncertainty. The collapse is driven by Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon, which violate the MOU's call for a permanent ceasefire on all fronts. Trump's own statements attacking the deal and Iran's alleged violations further confirm the deterioration. This is a significant escalation from the previous stable ceasefire narrative and directly threatens the Strait of Hormuz reopening, which had been priced in. Separately, Iraq is raising southern oilfield output by 250,000 bpd to 1.75 million bpd, a supply-side development that partially offsets the geopolitical risk premium. Ukrainian drone strikes have halted operations at a Moscow oil refinery, adding a minor supply disruption. On the macro front, the Fed rate hike odds near 40% for July, pressuring risk assets, while mega-cap tech (TSLA, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL) continues to rally, contradicting the broader macro caution. Alamos Gold shares plunged after an earthquake damaged a key mine, cutting production guidance.