WS #10199

The dominant narrative is the rapid unraveling of the US-Iran deal and the escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, which is acting as a counter-signal to the oil price decline from the Hormuz reopening. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, NYT, AFP, Reuters) confirm that Israel continued attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire, with 47 killed. Iran's Supreme Leader expressed dislike for the deal, and Macron announced he will not allow Trump to remove sanctions on Iran, further undermining the deal. This geopolitical instability is offsetting the positive oil supply news from the Strait of Hormuz reopening, where tanker traffic has increased but remains far below pre-war levels. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow's oil refinery have shut down processing indefinitely, adding a new supply-side risk to oil markets. Traders have repriced Fed rate hikes, fully pricing a 25bp increase by September due to oil-driven inflation concerns. The SpaceX IPO has triggered a historic land grab in leveraged ETFs, with over $10 billion in trading volume in the first week, indicating extreme retail speculation. Berkshire Hathaway is pivoting to housing/tech, raising concentration risk, with a 15% decline noted. Adobe hit an 8-year low, down 72% from highs. A Bain Capital CLO failed to repay investors, the first such default since the ABS overhaul. The UK political scene is seeing pressure on PM Starmer to set a departure timetable.