WS #10211

The dominant narrative remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis and oil supply fears, but this window introduces a significant counter-signal: Vice President Vance stated that ships carrying over 12 million barrels crossed the Strait overnight, and oil prices fell toward $78. This directly counters the bearish oil thesis. However, the situation remains highly volatile: the IRGC announced closure of the Strait in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon, while US-Iran peace talks were abandoned. Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew a fragile ceasefire after a flareup, but drone strikes killed two in southern Lebanon after the ceasefire took effect. Separately, Russia is rationing gasoline in Moscow due to Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, which could impact global oil supply dynamics. In corporate news, Charles Schwab is partnering with Cboe to offer S&P 500 binary options, entering the prediction markets space. Salesforce removed the Klue app after a data breach exposing customer data via OAuth token abuse. UK PM Starmer is considering resigning after cabinet ministers called for him to step down. The overall narrative arc is STABLE with a slight de-escalation on oil fears due to Vance's statement, but the Strait remains contested.