WS #10275

The Strait of Hormuz situation remains the dominant theme, with conflicting reports: Iran state TV claims the Strait is closed again due to Israeli ceasefire violations in Lebanon, while U.S. Central Command states traffic continues to flow and Iran does not control the Strait. This contradiction introduces uncertainty but does not resolve the bullish oil thesis. Separately, a Nobel laureate AI scientist is leaving DeepMind for Anthropic, which is a positive signal for Anthropic's talent pipeline and could pressure Google's AI efforts. The Trump-Meloni diplomatic row continues but has limited direct market impact. Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian oil refineries continues, with a new attack on a Tyumen refinery, reinforcing the supply disruption narrative. AbbVie is reportedly in talks to buy a biotech for $10.9B for an eczema drug, which could move ABBV and the target. Bolivia declared a state of emergency due to protests, but this is a localized event with minimal US market impact. The rest is noise (sports, weather, crypto bets, routine dividends). The dominant theme is STABLE with no material escalation or de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz situation.