WS #10288

The dominant signal in this window is the Strait of Hormuz closure by Iran, corroborated by multiple sources including NBC News, NYT, and various social media accounts. Iran's military command announced the closure citing US and Israeli violations, with reports that Iran accepted $12 billion in frozen funds prior. This represents an escalation of the ongoing crisis. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure continue, with a strike on the Tyumen refinery over 2,000 km from Ukraine confirmed by Zelenskyy. This adds to supply-side risks for energy markets. No counter-signals or de-escalation are detected. The previous narrative of the Hormuz crisis remains dominant and is escalating with the new closure announcement.