WS #10296

The Strait of Hormuz closure narrative continues to dominate, with multiple independent sources confirming Iran's renewed closure. Iran's state media Tasnim states the strait will remain closed even if sanctions are lifted unless Israeli forces withdraw from Lebanon. Trump's contradictory claim that the strait is open is undermined by on-the-ground reports. Brent crude is up 4.7% in 24 hours. A potential counter-signal emerges: Netanyahu has ordered IDF to halt operations in Lebanon, which could de-escalate the crisis if implemented. Additionally, France's Macron says France will not support lifting UN sanctions on Iran without a satisfactory nuclear agreement, adding pressure. Ukraine-Russia conflict remains elevated with Zelenskyy confirming new 3,000km-range drones struck the Tyumen oil refinery, and a Russian attack killed five in Zaporizhzhia. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge is seen showing faster inflation, which could pressure rate-sensitive sectors. The dominant theme is ESCALATING on the Hormuz front, with the Lebanon ceasefire order as a potential de-escalation signal.