WS #10306

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis. Al Jazeera reports Trump vowing no tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz unless imposed by the US, while Iran's joint military command has closed the strait citing a breach of the ceasefire MOU. US Central Command denies the closure. This is corroborated by multiple Bluesky posts highlighting the uncertainty and the potential for a major oil supply disruption. The narrative arc is ESCALATING: Iran has acted on its threat to close the strait, and Trump's response is ambiguous, increasing the risk of a supply shock. A separate but lower-significance development is a report that UK PM Keir Starmer is set to resign on Monday, which could introduce political uncertainty in the UK but has limited direct US market impact. The Ukraine-Russia conflict continues with drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, but this is a continuation of an existing theme without new market-moving data.