WS #10322

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with a major Ukrainian drone attack destroying the Moscow Oil Refinery, causing 'oil rain' in the Russian capital. This represents a significant escalation in the conflict, directly threatening Russian energy infrastructure and global oil supply. Separately, Bolivia has declared a state of emergency and deployed the military to quell anti-government protests, which could impact commodity markets. A new round of US-Iran talks is set to begin in Switzerland, offering a potential counter-signal to geopolitical tensions. The World Cup match between Tunisia and Japan is generating heavy betting activity but is not market-moving. Bitcoin ETF outflows continue, with $6.4B shed in 30 days, indicating persistent bearish sentiment in crypto markets.