WS #10329

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation that US-Iran talks have begun in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, as reported by multiple sources (Bluesky, GDELT). This is a de-escalatory development that counters the prevailing bearish thesis around Strait of Hormuz disruption and oil supply risk. Separately, Iraq has asked oil fields to boost output to pre-war levels, which adds to the oil supply-side positive. The Ukraine-Russia conflict continues with drone strikes on Crimea oil facilities, but this is a continuation of the existing narrative (ESCALATING). UK political instability (Starmer leadership challenge) is a medium-significance signal for GBP and UK equities. Bitcoin ETF outflows of $6.35B over 30 days signal institutional crypto weakness. The Nvidia rally is showing signs of wobbling, which could impact the broader tech narrative. The Fed's hawkish stance (rate hike probability rising) and dollar strength are macro headwinds for growth stocks. Overall, the US-Iran talks are the highest-signal development, acting as a counter to oil supply fears.