WS #10331

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran rhetoric, with President Trump threatening military action and toll collection in the Strait of Hormuz, directly contradicting the prior de-escalatory diplomatic narrative. Multiple Bluesky posts and a BBC report confirm Trump's statements about potentially taking control of the strait and collecting 20% of oil revenues, while Iran's President Pezeshkian reaffirms uranium enrichment rights. This represents a significant escalation from the previous window's focus on diplomatic progress. Separately, UK PM Starmer is reported by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Seeking Alpha, FT) to be close to resigning, with a potential Monday announcement, escalating the UK political instability narrative. Ukraine continues deep strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting Crimea and Tyumen refineries, but this is a continuation of the existing trend. The US-Iran deal narrative is now under threat, with the Strait of Hormuz closure risk re-emerging as a key bearish factor for oil and global trade.