WS #10339

The dominant narrative in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran confrontation, with Iran reimposing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, directly contradicting the prior week's MOU. This is a high-significance escalation that reverses the oil price decline seen after the initial deal. Trump has threatened additional military strikes and a 'Guardian Angel' tax on oil transiting the strait, while US-Iran talks in Switzerland are overshadowed by the blockade. Oil prices are likely to spike on this news, benefiting energy stocks and hurting airlines and consumer sectors. Separately, UK PM Keir Starmer is reported to be set to resign, with multiple sources corroborating, which could introduce political uncertainty but is unlikely to have a direct US market impact. The Ukrainian strike on the Tyumen oil refinery adds a supply-side risk to Russian oil, but is secondary to the Hormuz story. The prior narrative of de-escalation is now DE-ESCALATING, as the Hormuz blockade re-escalates the crisis.