WS #10341

The dominant narrative from the previous window—US-Iran confrontation and Strait of Hormuz blockade—has been fundamentally overturned by a major de-escalation. Multiple corroborating sources (BBC, Al Jazeera, Seeking Alpha, and several social media posts) confirm that US and Iranian officials have begun direct peace talks in Switzerland with a 60-day roadmap to a final agreement. The talks include commitments to end fighting on all fronts, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address the nuclear issue. This represents a sharp reversal from the prior crisis escalation and is a high-significance counter-signal to the bearish oil/energy thesis. Oil prices are already reacting, with US gas prices falling below $4/gallon as the war-risk premium unwinds. Separately, UK PM Keir Starmer is reported to be set to resign, with multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, social media) corroborating Trump's statement and reports of a resignation timetable. This introduces political uncertainty in the UK but limited direct US market impact. The Ukrainian strike on the Tyumen oil refinery adds a supply-side risk to Russian oil, but is secondary to the Iran deal. The prior narrative of escalation is now DE-ESCALATING, as the peace talks counter the crisis.