WS #10364

The dominant narrative remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is STABLE with no material escalation or de-escalation in this window. A satirical post claiming 'IRGC announces closure of Strait of Hormuz after VAR overrules Iran goal' is clearly noise, but a separate post citing CENTCOM stating 55 tankers carrying 17M barrels passed through suggests the closure claim is not being enforced. Germany's defense minister directly blamed Trump for the crisis, adding political pressure but no new market-moving data. The Iran peace deal walkout narrative is being recirculated by the same source (Prof. Marandi) with no new details. Chubb CEO sees gradual recovery in Hormuz shipping, which is a mild positive for energy and shipping. The KNDS defense IPO (valuation €15-19B) is a new development for the defense sector. The Fed guidance shift under new Chair Warsh is flagged as potentially raising borrowing costs, which is a bearish signal for growth stocks. Ukraine strikes on a Crimean oil depot are ongoing but not new. No MAG7-specific contradictory signals emerged. The previous high-significance items (Iran walkout, bipartisan criticism, M&A, defense sector, Micron guidance) are carried forward as unchanged.