WS #10380

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran tensions, with Iran's delegation walking out of quadrilateral talks after Trump's threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This has driven Brent crude futures up 2% and pushed US equity futures lower (S&P 500 -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.4%). Mediation efforts by Pakistan and Qatar are ongoing but have not yielded results. Separately, Colombia's presidential runoff shows conservative Abelardo de la Espriella leading, which could align Bogota with the Trump administration and affect energy and mining sectors. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed at 10% of normal traffic, sustaining upward pressure on oil prices. The narrative is ESCALATING on the US-Iran front, with no de-escalation signals in this window.