WS #10395

The dominant signal in this window is the sharp escalation in US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources reporting that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed after Iran declared it shut, and negotiations have imploded following Trump's provocative comments. This is corroborated by Al Jazeera reporting shipping stalls in the Strait, a Bluesky post stating the Strait is closed, and Polymarket events tracking Strait of Hormuz traffic. The escalation is further reinforced by Trump again threatening military action, which sent Treasuries lower and oil prices higher, prompting investors to reassess inflation risks. In contrast, CNBC reported that US and Iran agreed a roadmap for a final deal within 60 days and set up a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism, but this appears to be contradicted by the more recent implosion narrative. The net effect is a bearish macro shock for risk assets, bullish for energy and inflation hedges. Separately, a Trump ally won the Colombian election, signaling a pro-business swing, and China imposed export controls on two US rare earth producers, adding to trade tensions. The overnight session saw rotation out of AI-infrastructure into memory/chip names (MU +2%, INTC +1.9%) while mega-cap cloud bled (ORCL -1.6%, MSFT -0.7%, AMZN -0.7%).