WS #10398

The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran roadmap deal, confirmed by CNBC and a Bluesky post, which is a major de-escalation in the Middle East. This counters the prevailing oil supply crisis narrative and is likely to push oil prices lower, benefiting airlines and consumer stocks while hurting energy producers. Separately, China has imposed trade curbs on dozens of US firms, including rare earth miners MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, in retaliation for the Pentagon's blacklist, escalating trade tensions and directly impacting US rare earth and defense stocks. The Qatar LNG explosion from the previous window remains a bullish catalyst for natural gas, but the US-Iran deal dampens the broader energy crisis. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization odds have plunged from 27% to 7% on Polymarket amid Trump's threats, but the US-Iran deal may reverse that. Overall, the narrative is shifting from energy supply shock to de-escalation, with trade tensions as a secondary bearish factor.