WS #10407

The dominant signal in this window is the imminent resignation of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with multiple sources (BBC, Sky, Reuters, ITV) reporting that a lectern is being set up in Downing Street and an announcement is expected imminently. This confirms the UK political crisis is escalating to a climax. Separately, the first round of US-Iran talks in Switzerland has concluded with 'encouraging progress' and agreement on a roadmap towards a final deal within 60 days, including a deconfliction cell for Lebanon and a communication line for the Strait of Hormuz. This is a significant de-escalation signal that counters the prevailing bearish oil/geopolitical risk thesis. European natural gas edged higher amid mixed signals from Trump, but the overall trajectory is towards a deal. Other notable items include: Germany and France becoming joint shareholders in KNDS (defense), EasyJet rejecting a £4.74B takeover bid, and a massive drone attack on Moscow airports (80 drones intercepted) which is a continuation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict but not a new escalation.