WS #10478

The dominant signal in this window is the ongoing US-Iran peace talks and oil sanctions easing, which is de-escalating the oil supply crisis narrative. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, Financial Post, Headline Dispatch) corroborate that the US has eased oil sanctions on Iran, allowing some oil sales, and that peace talks are showing early progress. This is a counter-signal to the earlier Iran war/oil disruption thesis. Separately, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow, striking an oil refinery, which could add a modest risk premium to oil. Insider selling at MARA Holdings ($MARA) is notable, with three insiders selling $720K in shares. The IBM-OpenAI partnership on enterprise security AI is a positive signal for IBM. The UK winter power supply is secure despite Iran disruption, per Bloomberg. The narrative arc for the Iran war/oil theme is DE-ESCALATING due to peace talks progress and the US waiver.