WS #10513

The dominant narrative remains a broad tech-led selloff (Nasdaq -2.66%, S&P 500 -1.19%) amid AI debt concerns and rate-hike fears, but several high-signal developments emerge. The US-Iran peace deal is progressing: Trump says the US will control Iran's use of unfrozen funds, and the US is letting Iran sell oil again, which is weighing on oil prices (WTI -0.78). Iran and Oman are working on a pact for Hormuz transit costs. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Exxon Mobil in a Cuban assets case and in favor of Cisco Systems in a Falun Gong lawsuit. Carnival forecast Q3 profit below estimates on higher fuel costs, dragging cruise stocks. Backblaze shares rose 30% on a $335M deal with CoreWeave. The European Commission hosted Taliban representatives for the first time. Ukraine executed a large drone offensive striking the Gazprom Neft Moscow Oil Refinery, and Russia is discussing fuel imports due to refinery strikes. US PMI data for June beat expectations (Manufacturing 55.7 vs 54.8 est, Services 51.3 vs 51.0 est), suggesting the economy remains resilient. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped more than expected (4 vs 8 est). Oracle cut 21,000 jobs in the past year amid AI shift. The narrative is one of tech-led risk aversion with pockets of strength in energy, defense, and select industrials, while the Iran deal and strong PMI provide some offset. The tech selloff is escalating, but the Iran deal and strong PMI are de-escalating macro fears.