WS #10599

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp decline in crude oil, with WTI dropping below $70/bbl for the first time since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, driven by Trump's statement that Iran is not seeking tolls through the Strait of Hormuz. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, Bloomberg, social media) and is causing a broad sector rotation: energy stocks are sliding, airline stocks are rising, and the 'debasement trade' is unwinding, hitting gold, silver, and bitcoin. Gold fell below $4,000, silver slid 4.69% to $59.07, and bitcoin is sinking toward $60K with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 17 (Extreme Fear). The oil drop is a counter-signal to the previous oil-selloff narrative, accelerating the move. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data is softening: May new-home sales missed badly (580K vs 632K expected), sending the 10Y yield down 7.5 bps to 4.418% and fueling rate-cut hopes. Trump canceled a housing bill signing, adding policy uncertainty. In corporate news, Hertz tumbled on a weak profit warning and capital raise, while Amazon Prime Day is providing a modest lift to AMZN. The overall market narrative is shifting from geopolitical risk to demand concerns, with oil's collapse acting as both a deflationary force and a potential recession signal.