WS #10609

The dominant signal in this window is the sharp decline in oil prices back to pre-Iran-war levels, driven by tangible progress in Strait of Hormuz transit. Multiple sources (MarketWatch, CNBC, Alpaca News) confirm that oil tankers carrying 35 million barrels have exited the Persian Gulf since the US-Iran deal, with flows rising to ~4.8M bpd. This is a material de-escalation of the oil supply crisis, directly countering the prior bullish oil thesis. Separately, Trump's cancellation of the housing bill signing to pressure for the SAVE America Act is confirmed by Al Jazeera, FT, and Seeking Alpha, adding to US political uncertainty. The NTSB has opened a probe into the fatal Texas Tesla crash, corroborated by TechCrunch, Ars Technica, and Seeking Alpha, adding regulatory risk to TSLA. Cerebras (CBRS) stock is plunging 17% after earnings as margin guidance was 'misunderstood', per CNBC. Bitcoin ETFs saw record $6.4B outflows over 30 days, per Seeking Alpha. On the macro side, ECB's Schnabel sees need for further rate hikes, a hawkish signal. The dominant narrative is oil de-escalation (DE-ESCALATING), US political gridlock (ESCALATING), and tech/AI earnings divergence (STABLE with CBRS negative).