WS #10703

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is ESCALATING with new, specific threats from Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA). Multiple sources (Reuters, Al Jazeera, Axios, NBC, Bloomberg) report that the PGSA announced vessels using unauthorized routes will not be covered by safe passage guarantees or insurance, placing liability on owners, operators, and commanders. The UN shipping agency has paused evacuation operations for stranded vessels after a ship attack in the Gulf of Oman. This follows the IRGC attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, per WSJ. The NYT reports Iran threatens ships in the Strait as Marco Rubio meets Gulf leaders. Bloomberg reports Trump seeks $88 billion for Iran war. These developments increase the probability of sustained oil supply disruption. WTI crude settled at $71.92 (+2.25%) and is currently at $72.13 (+2.54%). Separately, Iraq ordered the West Qurna-2 oil field to suspend production due to a lack of empty tankers, compounding supply concerns. In contrast, a counter-signal emerges: the May PCE report may mark peak inflation as oil prices have collapsed from ~$100 to ~$70, with the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast pointing to June headline PCE cooling to 3.9%. This could dampen the bearish macro thesis driven by inflation fears. In corporate news, MSTR dropped to a 52-week low below $90, and Nike is down 75% from its peak. Ares Private Credit Fund caps redemptions after 14% seek to exit, signaling stress in private credit markets. On the positive side, Google launched a dedicated Finance app on Android with AI features, and Southwest flew its first aircraft equipped with Starlink. Bitcoin imploded to $59,000 with $1 billion in liquidations. IBM debuted sub-1 nanometer chip technology, a major semiconductor breakthrough. Boeing won up to $2B Space Force contract. SpaceX plans to build a natural gas pipeline to Texas launch facilities. The EU extended tariff suspension in Boeing-Airbus trade dispute. Venezuela was hit by twin earthquakes (7.2 and 7.5), causing devastation and complicating aid operations. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is too high, but the PCE report showed core inflation at 3.4% in May, its highest since October 2023. Markets expect a Fed rate hike in September. Micron ($MU) has become the most traded stock in the US, with daily turnover surpassing $70 billion, and is up 268% YTD, central to the AI trade. CarMax named a new CEO, cut 2,252 jobs, and took a $141M goodwill charge amid sales pressure. A federal judge blocked Trump's executive order restricting mail-in voting. The Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration can end Temporary Protected Status for Haitians and Syrians. Waymo registered a German entity for potential robotaxi expansion in Europe. MariMed submitted DEA registration applications for state-licensed medical cannabis businesses, aligning with federal rescheduling to Schedule III.