WS #10745

The dominant signal in this window is the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey showing a sharp drop in 1-year inflation expectations to 3.5% from 4.0%, while 3- and 5-year expectations held steady at 2.9% and 2.4%. This is a disinflationary signal for the Eurozone, supporting a less hawkish ECB stance and potentially boosting European equities and bonds. Separately, the Strait of Hormuz disruption narrative continues: Iran blamed the US and Israel for insecurity in the waterway, and a blast was reported to have triggered a £2.3 billion UK energy shock. This supports oil prices and energy stocks. The Venezuela earthquake death toll has risen to 235, but this is a humanitarian crisis with limited direct market impact beyond potential aid-related spending. The US Senate passed an Iran war powers resolution (50-48) to curb Trump military actions, which could dampen geopolitical risk premium in oil. The tech selloff narrative from prior windows is not reinforced by new data in this batch; the ECB survey is the main new macro input. The narrative arc for the ECB data is a new development (disinflationary), while the Hormuz situation is ESCALATING with Iran's explicit blame. The Senate Iran resolution acts as a counter-signal to the Hormuz escalation, potentially capping oil price upside.