WS #10767

The dominant narrative from the previous window—de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz oil supply disruption—is now being challenged by new developments. A cargo vessel was struck by a projectile near Oman, prompting the UN to pause evacuation plans for stranded sailors. This incident, reported by Al Jazeera and cross-referenced by NPR and BBC, introduces renewed uncertainty about the safety of the waterway. Additionally, Oman has warned European allies of potential new shipping fees for transit through the Strait, further complicating the recovery narrative. These signals suggest the situation is re-escalating, countering the prior de-escalation thesis. Meanwhile, US oil prices have plunged below $69 (-4.52%) as ships continue crossing, indicating market pricing of risk is shifting. Other notable signals include a small plane crashing into Beijing's tallest building (NYT, multiple sources), John Bolton pleading guilty in a classified documents case (NPR, Al Jazeera), and OpenAI IPO timeline speculation (CNBC, Bloomberg). The University of Michigan consumer sentiment final came in at 49.5, below the 50 forecast, signaling weakening consumer confidence.