WS #10783

The dominant narrative in this window is the continued de-escalation of the oil supply crisis, with Brent and WTI crude on track for weekly losses of nearly 10% and 8.5% respectively, as Strait of Hormuz traffic improves and global supply concerns diminish. This is corroborated by multiple sources reporting easing tensions and falling prices. However, a new counter-signal has emerged: President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on countries implementing digital services taxes targeting US companies, escalating trade war risks. This could offset some of the positive sentiment from lower oil prices by reintroducing trade uncertainty. Additionally, the Israel-Lebanon framework agreement was officially signed in Washington, confirming the previous narrative of de-escalation in the Middle East. On the tech front, Amazon is raising AI cloud prices on AWS by 20%, which could pressure margins for AI-dependent companies but boost Amazon's revenue. Meta's stock remains weak as investors focus on its massive capex spending. A notable dark pool order of 1.3M NVDA shares at $194.97 signals institutional interest. The Fed's Kashkari stated that the cooled labor market is not driving inflation, suggesting a less hawkish stance. Overall, the macro picture is mixed: oil de-escalation is bullish for consumers and airlines, but trade war escalation and AI capex concerns weigh on tech.