WS #10800

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed escalation of US-Iran military conflict. Multiple independent sources (NBC, Axios, ABC, WSJ, CBS, and several Bluesky accounts) report that US military conducted strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile/drone storage and coastal radar sites, in response to an Iranian attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This represents a significant escalation from the previous 'tensions' narrative and directly threatens oil shipping through the Strait. The strikes are described as 'ongoing' by Fox News, and Iranian media reports warning shots were fired earlier. This is a high-significance geopolitical development with direct implications for oil prices, energy stocks, and broader risk sentiment. Counter-signals include the US military stating forces remain present to ensure the Iran deal is adhered to, suggesting a calibrated response rather than all-out war. Separately, risk-off signals are evident in credit markets: SpaceX's $25B bond deal widened 28-32bp, and BofA flagged record $9.3B tech fund outflows. The tech rout continues with NVDA down 1.6%, QQQ down 1.4%, and Oracle's worst week since 2001. However, AAPL closed up 3.1% and TSLA up 1.2%, showing divergence within MAG7. Memory stocks (MU, SNDK) are being discussed as beneficiaries of an AI infrastructure supercycle, with Samsung reportedly preparing ~$650B investment. The Strait of Hormuz escalation is the highest-significance development, with direct implications for oil prices, energy stocks, and broader risk sentiment.