WS #10880

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of US-Iran military conflict near the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple independent sources (Bluesky posts citing Axios, Reuters, KobeissiLetter, and US Central Command) corroborate that the US has launched airstrikes on Iranian targets near Sirik, Hormozgan province, with a second round of strikes reportedly underway. This follows an earlier attack on a commercial tanker and represents a significant escalation that threatens oil shipping through the Strait. The development is ESCALATING rapidly, with Polymarket contracts on Strait disruption and Iranian shipping attacks seeing heavy trading. Separately, Trump threatened 100% tariffs on countries taxing US digital services, targeting Europe, which could impact big tech. Other items (Venezuela earthquake, Ukraine strikes, ICE nomination, sports betting) are lower signal or noise. The US-Iran conflict is the primary market-moving event, with direct implications for energy prices, shipping, and broader risk sentiment.