WS #10908

The US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, with the Guardian and Al Jazeera both reporting a new round of tit-for-tat strikes. Iran launched drone and missile attacks against Bahrain and Kuwait after US strikes on southern Iran, and Trump threatened that Iran 'will no longer exist' if talks fail. This is corroborated by Polymarket trades on 'Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28' and 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31', indicating elevated risk pricing. The narrative is ESCALATING, with both sides accusing each other of violating the MoU's Article 5. Separately, Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian oil refineries continues, with multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Pravda, SBU) confirming strikes on the Slavyansk and Yaroslavl refineries, sustaining upward pressure on oil prices. A Seeking Alpha report reveals Google is rationing AI capacity to Meta due to infrastructure crunch, highlighting AI demand outstripping supply and potentially benefiting GOOGL while pressuring META. The BIS warning on AI spending frenzy echoes historical manias, adding caution to tech sentiment. The US-Iran conflict escalation is the highest-significance development, with direct implications for energy stocks, airlines, and broader indices. The Ukraine refinery strikes sustain upward pressure on oil prices. The Google-Meta AI capacity rationing is a new development with direct implications for MAG7 tickers.