WS #10967

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant market narrative, with multiple sources corroborating renewed tit-for-tat strikes and a reported agreement to halt attacks. A Bloomberg headline and a Bluesky post both report that the US and Iran have agreed to halt attacks and Doha talks have begun, which acts as a counter-signal to the escalation narrative. However, CNBC reports that talks have been paused after US strikes on Iranian sites, while a senior US official disputes that negotiations were cancelled. This mixed messaging keeps the situation fluid. Oil prices edged higher (WTI +0.71% to $69.72, Brent +0.36% to $72.25) on renewed supply fears. Separately, Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have prompted Putin to admit fuel shortages and consider diesel export restrictions, adding upward pressure on energy prices and potentially benefiting US energy stocks while hurting airlines. HP Inc. announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI to deploy the Frontier platform, which is a positive catalyst for HPQ. The FT reports sovereign funds are shifting from public markets to private credit and infrastructure to ride the AI wave, reinforcing the structural demand for AI infrastructure. Wall Street banks are capitulating on euro strength bets as markets see the US outpacing Europe on rate hikes, which is bullish for the USD and bearish for EUR/USD. Overall, the US-Iran situation is STABLE with a potential de-escalation signal (Doha talks), but the ceasefire remains fragile. The Ukraine-Russia energy war is ESCALATING with new refinery strikes.