WS #10980

The dominant narrative from the prior window (US-Iran conflict de-escalation, oil price spike reversing) remains STABLE with no new developments. The situation is unchanged. However, several new signals have emerged in this window: South Korea announced a massive ~$1 trillion chip and AI investment plan involving Samsung and SK Hynix building four new fabs, which is bullish for semiconductor equipment and memory stocks. Separately, Reuters exclusively reported that China's CXMT won a $3 billion memory supply deal with Tencent and is aggressively expanding capacity, which could pressure US memory makers. Additionally, a Bloomberg report indicates Google has restricted Meta's access to its Gemini AI models due to compute capacity shortages, highlighting AI infrastructure constraints. Finally, the US and Iran have agreed to halt attacks and resume talks, per multiple sources, which is a counter-signal to the prior conflict escalation thesis.