WS #10982

The dominant narrative from the prior window (US-Iran conflict de-escalation, oil price spike reversing) remains STABLE with no new developments. However, several new high-signal items have emerged in this window. South Korea announced a massive ~$520 billion chip and AI investment plan involving Samsung and SK Hynix building new fabs, which is bullish for semiconductor equipment and memory stocks. Separately, a Bloomberg report indicates Google has restricted Meta's access to its Gemini AI models due to compute capacity shortages, highlighting AI infrastructure constraints. Additionally, Putin admitted Russia faces fuel shortages after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, which could support oil prices. The US and Iran have agreed to halt attacks and resume talks, per multiple sources, which is a counter-signal to the prior conflict escalation thesis. British American Tobacco announced 5,500 job cuts in an AI-led restructuring, a company-specific signal. Finally, an Iranian kamikaze drone struck an oil refinery in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, adding geopolitical risk to oil supply.