WS #10985

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine energy war, with Putin admitting fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, corroborated by multiple sources (pro-wire, Bluesky OSINT accounts). This directly supports oil prices and is bullish for energy stocks. Separately, a Bloomberg report indicates the US and Iran have agreed to halt attacks ahead of talks, a counter-signal that could dampen the oil risk premium. China has imposed export controls on 20 Japanese entities, escalating trade tensions and potentially impacting semiconductor and defense supply chains. On the corporate front, Apple is embroiled in an Indian antitrust dispute, and Zymeworks is reportedly nearing a $929M deal for Theravance. Bitcoin remains weak, trading below key technical levels with a potential downside target of $45,000. The US-Iran ceasefire narrative is de-escalating, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating.